Can Sonnen Beat Silva at UFC 117
By: Jason Perrigan
UFC 117 is set to be one of the most memorable cards in UFC history. On Saturday August 7th 2010, Live from Oracle Arena in Oakland California, Anderson Silva will defend his title against Chael Sonnen for the UFC middleweight title. Anderson Silva is one of the most interesting and most dominating champions in MMA history. Anderson “The Spider” Silva (26-4) is undefeated in the UFC, winning eleven straight since UFC Fight Night 5 In June of 2006. Silva has faced much controversy as of late from MMA fans and UFC President Dana White. Silva has been entertaining his opponents by trying to embarrass them, humiliate them, and prove to he is in a completely different level in the MMA world. At UFC 101, he embarrassed Forrest Griffin so bad with a 1st round knockout punch, that Griffin ran out of the cage and left the arena as fast as he could. Silva’s last fight against Demian Maia was a disgrace to the UFC. Although having Maia to the breaking point several times, Silva refused to finish the fight. Silva ran around the octagon screaming at Maia, running around in circles, and continually taunting Maia. Dana White has threatened to cut Anderson Silva if he displays that kind of nonsense in the octagon again. Silva’s biggest strength is his striking, especially in the clinch.
On the other hand, Chael Sonnen (24-10) has made it known that he has been wanting to fight Silva for more than four years. Sonnen has publically announced that he will “retire Silva.” Sonnen plans on getting his hands on Silva and drive him to the ground and forcing Silva to fight. The only problem with that strategy is that 7 of Sonnen’s 10 losses are from being submitted. Silva has only 4 submission victories, the last one was at UFC 81 in March 2008 when he defeated Dan Henderson by Rear Naked Choke. Sonnen’s three win UFC fight streak all have resulted in Unanimous decisions. Sonnen’s last lost, ironically, was against Demian Maia in February of 2009 at UFC 95. Sonnen talks a very big game. Will he be able to back it up at UFC 117? Sonnen prides himself on his wrestling, takedowns, and constant pressure he puts on his opponents by constantly moving forward.
Analysis:
Although Silva has not proved so as of late, he is one of the fiercest strikers in the business and his clinch game is the nastiest in Mixed Martial Arts. I look for Silva to use the dodge, duck, run, and strike approach against Sonnen. In order for Sonnen to get his hands on Silva he will have to catch him first.
Prediction:
This could go either way. If Silva can stay away from Sonnen’s takedowns Silva will win, if not, I give the nod to Sonnen. This is a tough call.
Silva defeats Sonnen in 3rd round by TKO.
Also on this fight card is the rematch against Jon Fitch (25-3 1NC) and Thiago “Pit Bull” Alves (22-5). In their last fight at UFC Fight Night 5, Jon Fitch defeated Alves by TKO in the second round due to referee stoppage via upkick. Their first meeting was not on the main card but this time, the more experienced fighters have moved up to the main card. Fitch has won four straight by way of unanimous decision. Fitch has won 20 of his last 21 professional fights, his only loss coming from the hands of welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre where he lost a unanimous decision at UFC 87. Fitch is a well-rounded fighter and over 54% of his wins are decision victories. Fitch’s biggest strengths are his takedowns and wrestling. Alves is coming off a loss in his most recent fight against Champ St. Pierre at UFC 100 by unanimous decision. After losing to Fitch at UFC Fight Night 5, Alves won seven straight before losing to St. Pierre. Alves has recent wins over Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck. Alves is an excellent striker and will use his Jiu-Jitsu. Both veterans are looking to get back into the welterweight title picture with a victory.
Analysis:
Both fighters have gone the distance in many of their fights so a strategy of trying to outlast their opponent will not be smart. I look for Alves to take control of this fight with his lethal knees.
Prediction:
Alves defeats Fitch by TKO in 2nd Round.
The very exciting Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (26-8) will square off against the Jiu-Jitsu specialist Rafael Dos Anjos (14-4). Guida is a wrestler with a very solid chin. He has great flexibility and he could probably fight ten five minute rounds if he had to. Guida defeated Shannon Gugerty by submission in the 2nd round on UFC on Versus 1. Dos Anjos is coming off three straight wins, most recently against Terry Etim at UFC 112 by Armbar Submission in the 2nd round.
Analysis:
Clay Guida is a great fighter and can fight through strikes and submissions. Dos Anjos greatest strength is his submissions and he may be able to catch Guida.
Prediction:
Dos Anjos defeats Guida by Submission in 1st round.
Also on UFC 117, Matt Hughes (45-7) will square off against Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida (12-3). Hughes’s biggest strength is his strength. He can pick you up and slam you to the ground. Hughes is an excellent wrestler and has a great ground game. Hughes is coming off two straight wins against Matt Serra and Renzo Gracie. Hughes is getting older, but he looked really good when he fought Gracie and was able to easily dominate him. Almeida, as Hughes, has excellent takedowns and a very impressive ground game. Almeida has won three straight fights and he is looking to climb up the welterweight latter with a win over a highly decorated UFC veteran. Almeida has recent victories over Kendall Grove and Matt Brown.
Analysis:
Both fighters are most comfortable fighting on the ground. Look for this fight to go to the ground early and often. Hughes has the experience but his age could prove to be a factor in this fight. This is a classic experience vs. youth showdown.
Prediction:
Almeida defeats Hughes by TKO 3rd Round.
The first fight on the card I’m predicting will end early. Roy “Big Country” Nelson (16-4) takes on Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos (11-1). Roy Nelson came into the UFC after winning the Ultimate Fighter Heavyweights. Nelson is a world-class grappler and he also has tons of power in his fists. Nelson, former IFL champion, is coming off two straight first round victories over Stefan Struve and Brendan Schaub. Nelson has claimed that his biggest weapon is his big, huge stomach. Dos Santos is a knockout artist who has won his last six fights due to strikes. Five of those six wins have come in the very first round.
Analysis:
Nelson is powerful but I’m not sure his chin can handle the power of Dos Santos. I look for Nelson to try to take this fight to the ground and use his stomach to hold down Dos Santos and pound him out. Dos Santos is going to want to stand with Nelson and use his power and reach to knock Nelson out.
Prediction:
Dos Santos defeats Nelson by KO in 2nd round.
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